Last week, before any poll projected it, we here at DWC predicted that Obama would win the popular vote in California. We were wrong. Clinton won by a substantial margin.
As for the all-important national allocation of convention delegates, however, the two Democrats are in a virtually tie. CNN estimates Clinton's total at 825 and Obama's at 732, a slender lead nowhere near what would be needed to wrap up the nomination before this summer's convention.
Obama's camp is providing an alternative estimate of the current national delegate distribution: Obama 908, Clinton 884.
It's been decades since one of the parties didn't have a "presumptive nominee" until its convention, but that appears inevitable for this year's Democratic Party. One key factor is that Obama has a lot more money than Clinton, and a much broader base of small donors, who can keep contributing. Her backers are rich people who have maxed out already. It takes money to compete, and he's the one who has it.
The Republicans do have a clear leader, McCain, but he does not yet have enough delegates pledged to him to wrap up the GOP race. Furthermore, he faces a growing split within his party, with Southerners, evangelicals, and conservatives backing Huckabee.
So, you'd have to say we still have two dynamic races, and that either could go one of two ways. Stay tuned.
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