What Tuesday May Bring

With the final round of public opinion polls emerging in the final days before Super Tuesday, even the most diligent observers could be forgiven for throwing their hands up in confusion.

First, the Democrats.

* The Washington Post/ABC News poll finds Clinton leading Obama 47-43% in the Super Tuesday primary states.

* The latest Pew poll has a larger national lead of any poll for Clinton, 46%, with Obama at 38%.

* Rasmussen also says Clinton is widening her lead over Obama nationally to 8 points, 47-39%.

* Meanwhile, in the largest state, the Field Poll reports that Obama has closed to within two points of Clinton in California, 36-34%, with 30% supporting others or undecided.

* And, Zogby reports that Obama has actually taken the lead in California, 45%-41%.


Then, the Republicans.

* Pew says McCain has it in the bag, with 42%, followed by Romney 22%, and Huckabee at 20%.

* But Rasmussen says that the GOP race is much closer: McCain has 33%, Romney at 29%, and Huckabee at 21%, and Paul at 6%.

* The Wash.Post/ABC poll finds that McCain has twice as much support as Romney, 48-24%, Huckabee gets 16%, and Paul 7%.

* In California, Field reports McCain has an eight point lead over Romney (32-24%), while Huckabee gets 13%, Raul 10%, with 21% supporting minor candidates or undecided.

* But Zogby says Romney leads McCain, 37-34%, in California, with Huckabee trailing badly with 12%.

***

So, in both parties, you can find numbers to make you hopeful about the chances of either leading candidate. Over a period of weeks and months, two candidates are surging -- Obama and McCain.

While it seems likely that the two Democrats will fairly evenly split delegates, with slightly more going to Clinton, due to the proportional system their party uses; McCain appears poised to largely sweep Super Tuesday for the GOP, with its winner-take-all system of awarding delegates.

Forgetting who will win what, by far the most interesting ideas being advanced in this election cycle at the moment are coming from the minor Republicans, Huckabee and Paul. Huckabee, the conservative, wants to reform the tax system in a manner that would benefit low-income people. On the war, Paul is the only Republican opposed to it, and he is eloquent on the subject.

As far as creative thinking among the leaders, Clinton and Romney seem bereft of new, exciting ideas. She's viewed as calculating her stands to the results of her internal poll trackers, and he's seen as a Johnny-come-lately to conservatism.

Obama and McCain appeal to their supporters by appearing true and faithful to their principles. In the end, these qualities could well propel both men to their parties' nominations. That is the view from here.

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