Mike Huckabee has won plenty of red states tonight, which has to be a troubling sign to John McCain. Mitt Romney won some gimmes, but unless he steals California, he looks like a fading force within the GOP.
McCain is taking some heat from the right. It's not clear whether he can hold the conservative base that has sustained the Republican Party for a quarter century. Instead, he appeals to independents, moderates, and people who live in fear of another 9/11 type terrorist attack.
I'd have to say that Huckabee now has a certain kind of momentum, partly because, like McCain, he is not really cut from the mold of the most conservative Christians. He's a reasonable, likable fellow, with a Bill Clinton-type of cool who comes across well to independents and moderates.
This split between two (relative) centrists has the potential to render the GOP impotent in November, but it is revealing that the GOP is praying that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.
Both Clinton and Barack Obama delivered speeches to their faithful tonight, many hours before we will have any real sense of which one wins California. Her speech was solid but predictable. Polished. His was raw but powerful. And extremely emotional.
Conservatives, it is said, tend to vote with their heads; while liberals vote with their hearts. That said, both parties' core probably vote with their instincts.
As I survey the races at this hour (after 9 pm PST), Obama appears to pulling out in front in Missouri. If he wins that state, he will have secured the majority of states at issue in tonight's primaries.
As I write this, CNN says Hillary has won my state tonight. If true, this is a serious loss for Obama. CNN also claims McCain has won both Missouri and California, so if that proves to be true, the GOP race could be essentially over, despite Huckabee's surge.
It's a little hard to believe that Clinton will actually beat Obama in California by a margin that is more than a few percentage points. You just don't feel that that could be true on the ground here. But Obama fans have to feel worried about how the actual votes being reported in California depart so horribly from what voters said in exit polls.
This is the place where the "Bradley effect" was first noted, i.e., where voters over-reported their support for a black candidate when asked by exit pollers. For the good of all Americans, let's hope that whatever amount of residual racism still exists does not derail the candidacy of the most inspirational candidate in either party: Barack Obama.
Despite the major media projections, I will stick to my instinct: Obama will prevail in California. There are reports that many independent voters' ballots were rejected in Los Angeles County, where the Clinton machine holds undue influence. Virtually all independents voted for Obama. Some of us smell a Florida/Ohio type fix out here tonight.
If so, the results may not be determined until the lawsuits are settled. So, don't fall for media reports that Obama has lost California just yet. I, for one, am not prepared to conclude that that is true...
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