It's early but...

As the first returns come in (from the ten states where polls have closed), it seems like Obama and McCain are surging nationally. Before we have solid numbers, there are some innovative ways to game the political trends. One is Rasmussen Markets, which is based on the concept of "futures" as "purchased" by participants.

In the Democratic primary races, until the last few days, Clinton maintained a huge advantage (often two to one) over Obama, but yesterday Obama has drawn even. The state by state analysis via Rasmussen Markets predict that Obama will win 14 states tonight and Clinton only 8. On Obama's list is the biggest prize of all, California.

Of course, the real race is for delegates, which are rewarded proportionately, no one can make any responsible projections at this point.

The influential RealClearPolitics calculates the poll of polls and today their national averages read like this:

Dem.

Clinton 44.8%
Obama 41.6%

Rep.

McCain 42.8%
Romney 24.5%
Huckabee 18.0%
Paul 6.0%

Finally polls indicate both the GOP and Democratic races in California too close to call, though this state is notoriously hard to call before hand. I know that I was voter #123 at my precinct station this morning in the Democratic primary.

Democratic Exit Polls have been rolling in. here you go:

GA: C- 25.5, O - 75.0

CT: C - 45.0, O - 52.2

IL: C - 29.1, O - 69.6

AL: C - 37.0, O - 59.6

DE: C - 41.9, O - 55.6

MA: C - 47.3, O - 49.8

MO: C - 45.1, O - 49.8

TN: C - 51.6, O - 41.1

NY: C - 55.6, O - 42.2

NJ: C - 47.0, O - 52.2

AR: C - 71.2, O - 25.5

OK: C - 60.5, O - 30.4

AZ: C - 44.8, O - 50.5

NM: C - 45.6, O - 51.8

UT: C - 39.9, O - 60.1

CA: C - 49.6, O - 46.3


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