Obama and Romney Soaring in California

The latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll reports Obama has overtaken Clinton in the Golden State and now leads by a bare margin of 45-44%.

Surprisingly, Romney has caught McCain in California, according to the poll, and they are tied 38-38%.

Rasmussen finds that Obama also is making up ground nationally, and trails Clinton now by 46-40%. (But this morning the latest CNN poll found that Obama has actually taken over the national lead -- Obama at 49% and Clinton with 46%.)

The Republican race nationally has tightened as well, says Rasmussen: McCain 33%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 20%, and Paul 5%. (CNN says the race isn't close -- 44-29-18-6% for the four candidates.) My hunch is that many voters were turned off by McCain's immature conduct during the last GOP debate, and are switching to one of the other candidates.

The mainstream media are predicting that the GOP race will be essentially over after tomorrow's primaries in 20+ states. I'm not so sure. McCain won't win every race, and even if he takes most of the big states, he will not yet have enough delegates to ensure his nomination.

The Democratic race will certainly go on after tomorrow. If Obama beats all expectations and actually wins California, which I predicted he would last week, he may well end the day leading Clinton slightly in delegate totals. Most observers expect Clinton to win most of the states tomorrow, but due to proportional allocation of delegates (as opposed to winner-take-all), the actual numbers of delegates will mean more than bragging rights of winning a state.

It promises to be one of the most exciting primary elections in California history. The state traditionally has held its primaries in June, which most years is long after the nominations have been secured...

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