The Virus Among Us

There is a weather phenomenon known as the "atmospheric river." It occurs under certain weather conditions and results in a large amount of water circulating above us but rarely raining down here on earth's surface.

The virus is the opposite type of creature. It flows over the surface of the earth, spreading person to person to person and on and on. It was originally detected in China; three months later it has subsided enough that the country is cautiously reopening for business.

Roughly one quarter of the country's economy was destroyed in the process.

Now the virus has migrated to Europe. There, leaders are opting to expend massive amounts of government resources to incentivize people to self-quarantine and contain the spread. In most parts of Europe people have some freedom of movement.

Next the epicenter of this virus will be here, the U.S. It is unclear whether the leadership of this country is prepared to do what is necessary but there are some encouraging signs. The bi-partisan $2 trillion relief package is one.

Next the virus will probably turn south and invade Mexico, Central and South America. What is discouraging is that the leaders of the two biggest countries in that region -- Mexico and Brazil -- are so far denying that the danger is real. Just as Trump did initially here.

Based on China, it is reasonable to expect that every region's economy will lose at least one quarter of its profits this year. Millions are already out of work and millions more soon will be. Unemployment in the U.S. will perhaps rival that of the Great Depression.

This occurrence is of historic proportions. No amount of wishful thinking will avert it now.

It will take a long time to develop an effective vaccine. During that period, the virus will return.

My son-in-law, Loic Comolli, greatly aided me in this analysis.

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Sophia is 9!

Starting with breakfast in bed (cinnamon rolls, bacon bits, orange slices, milk) Sophia is celebrating her birthday today. I have so rarely been able to be with my grandchildren on their actual birthdays, this is also a special day for me.

It has rained lightly off and on today and every recent day, which is delightful.

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Test Results

Aidan tested negative for COVAD-19. Whew! He goes back to work as an EMT on Sunday.

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Family and Friends

Since we can't see each other in person, we need to develop effective new communication strategies during the coronavirus crisis. My own immediate family is divided into the four clusters where we were based when the shelter-in-place directive came down: two in San Francisco, one in San Jose, and one in El Cerrito.

If I have the numbers right, there are 20 of us, 13 adults and 7 children.

Six of the seven kids are studying from home; one is a toddler. Twelve of the adults are working from home; one is a retiree. As for age, two in our 70s, one in her 60s, three in their 40s, two in their 30s, and  five in their 20s.

We are holding up. As for communicating, Thank God (or rather the defense department) for the Internet! And cell phone technologies. Video conferences, especially for children, can be effective. For the Millennials, text messaging is best. Everyone else can choose those, plus email, social media, phone calls, or safe-distance in-person meetings.

More on this as we go forward. I'm converting this blog into a vehicle for experiences and ideas for people to use during this crisis, which may go on a long time.

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Waiting for Test Results

My son Aidan, an EMT, is ill with a respiratory infection. He is being tested for coronavirus. We should know more in 24-48 hours.

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Homework Time

Having spent decades helping my kids (and some of my friends' kids) with their homework, today it was a familiar old feeling to work with Laila's kids on their school assignments. Kids differ in their work styles and the emotional approach they bring to the tasks at hand.

Some are impatient and rebel at the prospect of homework. Others seem to relish it and approach it conscientiously.

There are things parents can do -- to help or hurt. My youngest, Julia, was ready for a snack after school -- cucumbers and other vegetables with hummus. While I prepared that she began to buckle down, and kept at it until it was finished.

My granddaughter Sophia, who's two days short of 9, is a creative story writer. Today I congratulated her and only pointed out a few spelling corrections.

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Fishing

Today we took the kids to a beautiful spot for a picnic and fishing. We didn't violate any safe distance guidelines.

After many days of staying home they needed a change of environment. It was great for all six of us to get away.

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