Election Update

Polls indicate that 42 percent of the public identify as independent. Only 29 percent identify as Democrat and 26 percent Republican.

Nate Silver's 538 says Hillary Clinton has a 68.5 percent chance of winning the election. Personally, I believe the race is tightening at this point.

But the Democrats maintain an electoral advantage that is significant even if the popular vote is essentially split by the major parties, with perhaps 8-10 percent going to the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson.

538 predicts Clinton will win the electoral college, 307-231.

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Labor Day Reflections

A nice brunch with Peter and Claire yesterday at the Atlas Cafe, where I have not been in a long while. Jack stayed in my apartment while we were away.

It's Labor Day but I do not expect to expend any labor today. Doing chores and getting ready for the week ahead is the best I can offer.

I have to report for possible jury duty early tomorrow morning -- the third time in a month. Not looking forward to that trek to the Hall of Justice.

I'm paying attention to the political race. For President, Trump continues to make mistakes but does not trail Clinto by that much in the polls. It's a hard race to fathom at this point. As I've written before, the electoral map is so favorable to the Democrats that I don't see how Trump can win, even if he draws even in the popular vote.

The other day I looked state by state and what shocked me was the extent of the divide between most blue and red states. Hillary is not only likely to win most of the blue states, her odds are in the 80-90 percent range.

Trump is not only likely to win the traditionally red states; his odds of doing so are in the 70-80 percent range. When analysts say we have a badly divided electorate they are not exaggerating.

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Weekend Quiet

Peter and Claire are settling into their new home in San Francisco; Aidan and Zaira into theirs in Missoula this weekend. Dylan is a week into his place in Santa Cruz.

I'm enjoying a weekend of sports watching -- Michigan won its first football game of the season, 63-3, and the Giants are within two games of the Dodgers in the NL West. I'm part of a fantasy football league at work and my fantasy baseball team, the Mud Lake Mafia, is in third place in a league of 13 teams.

It's sunny here today after a foggy stretch. Tomoko stopped by for tea yesterday.

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Semesters Start

Aidan and Zaira have arrived in Missoula; Dylan in Santa Cruz.

I'm missing them.

Today I finally did some shopping -- tonight's meal was a lamp chop, pico de gallo, and guacamole. Comfort food, you could say, for an empty nester on his own.

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Off to College Soon

New driver Dylan drove Aidan over to the neighborhood today at lunch hour, picked me up at work and we went to one of our favorites, El Matate, for a meal together.

They both leave for college on Saturday. Aidan off to Missoula; Dylan to Santa Cruz.

Both have cars now. Dylan's moving in with friends to an apartment; Aidan and Zaira will be in student housing.

I'll miss these guys, of course, but am grateful that within a week my oldest son, Peter, will be living here in the city.

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Bureaucracy

Spending way too much for my taste of yet another Monday in Room 307 of the Hall of Justice. Most people only seem to get called for jury duty every few years, but I get called every single year. Someone must really want me to serve on a jury.

Inevitably, once I make it through all the way of the grueling process to sit in a judge's room as a potential juror, I always get dismissed by the prosecution. Who on that side wants an investigative reporter/editor on the jury?

This month, there was a screwup by the court two weeks ago and I had to waste another Monday dealing with this, only to find out later that week -- Thursday -- that my reporting responsibility had been delayed until today. That was because I had requested a deferment a month earlier due to our impending trip to Seattle for Peter and Claire's wedding and the court had not responded until I had spent that Monday-Thursday checking the court website, trying to find out whether to report.

If this round turns out the way it now appears, I will have to report again in two more weeks -- Tuesday, September 6 -- for a criminal trial that will last two weeks.

Whatever, I no longer care but I hope this bureaucratic nightmare somehow comes to some sort of end.

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Reflections

You know, most people when they talk to me these years tend to compliment me on my career as a journalist, which is by any objective measure in its final years. And I thank them, because I *am* proud of the things we all have accomplished (as a team) and it is kind of them to have noticed. There are articles, books, documentaries and other artifacts to document what has happened due to our work. We've won awards, changed the world a bit, and hopefully helped lay the groundwork to improve life as we know it, even though I often doubt that, given the state of the planet.

But whatever has happened in my career is secondary and always has been because of what has occurred in my family life. Above please see my oldest son, Peter, his wife, Claire, and my daughters Laila, Sarah and Julia and sons, Aidan and Dylan.

As of today, it is official that Peter and Claire will be moving into an apartment 10 minutes from here in two weeks.

That means more to me than any journalism award.

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