Election Analysis

Hillary Clinton no longer clearly leads Donald Trump either in the popular vote or via the electoral map. The political landscape is changing and anyone analyzing it has to admit that Trump has been peaking lately.

Now the question is whether Clinton and the Democrats can regain the momentum. There still are almost two months left before the race gets decided.

If the present trend continues, Trump could well win. But I would venture a guess that the present trend will not continue.

That's because I think most of the tightening in the polls lately is a result of natural trends in an election year when no incumbent is running. The election may be up for grabs, but the electoral map continues to favor the Democrats.

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Sunday Update

Picked up Julia as she returned from a retreat with Girl Ventures, where she is on the advisory board, and drove her to Bernal. I had a little package of jelly beans for her.

She seems to be doing very well in school and is one of the top students in her senior class at Gateway. Maybe the top one.

She is applying for colleges. Her first choice would be a small private college but I hope she gets into U-C, Berkeley, where I think she would thrive. I think having a big network after college is better than a small one.

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Happy Birthday, Aidan!

My middle son's 22nd.

We had a long talk today by phone.

And I am so proud of him.

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Election Update

Polls indicate that 42 percent of the public identify as independent. Only 29 percent identify as Democrat and 26 percent Republican.

Nate Silver's 538 says Hillary Clinton has a 68.5 percent chance of winning the election. Personally, I believe the race is tightening at this point.

But the Democrats maintain an electoral advantage that is significant even if the popular vote is essentially split by the major parties, with perhaps 8-10 percent going to the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson.

538 predicts Clinton will win the electoral college, 307-231.

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Labor Day Reflections

A nice brunch with Peter and Claire yesterday at the Atlas Cafe, where I have not been in a long while. Jack stayed in my apartment while we were away.

It's Labor Day but I do not expect to expend any labor today. Doing chores and getting ready for the week ahead is the best I can offer.

I have to report for possible jury duty early tomorrow morning -- the third time in a month. Not looking forward to that trek to the Hall of Justice.

I'm paying attention to the political race. For President, Trump continues to make mistakes but does not trail Clinto by that much in the polls. It's a hard race to fathom at this point. As I've written before, the electoral map is so favorable to the Democrats that I don't see how Trump can win, even if he draws even in the popular vote.

The other day I looked state by state and what shocked me was the extent of the divide between most blue and red states. Hillary is not only likely to win most of the blue states, her odds are in the 80-90 percent range.

Trump is not only likely to win the traditionally red states; his odds of doing so are in the 70-80 percent range. When analysts say we have a badly divided electorate they are not exaggerating.

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Weekend Quiet

Peter and Claire are settling into their new home in San Francisco; Aidan and Zaira into theirs in Missoula this weekend. Dylan is a week into his place in Santa Cruz.

I'm enjoying a weekend of sports watching -- Michigan won its first football game of the season, 63-3, and the Giants are within two games of the Dodgers in the NL West. I'm part of a fantasy football league at work and my fantasy baseball team, the Mud Lake Mafia, is in third place in a league of 13 teams.

It's sunny here today after a foggy stretch. Tomoko stopped by for tea yesterday.

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Semesters Start

Aidan and Zaira have arrived in Missoula; Dylan in Santa Cruz.

I'm missing them.

Today I finally did some shopping -- tonight's meal was a lamp chop, pico de gallo, and guacamole. Comfort food, you could say, for an empty nester on his own.

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