Thursday, October 10, 2024

D-I-V-O-R-C-E

As the monster storm Milton smashed into on Florida, less than two weeks after its precursor, Helene, devastated the entire Southeast, the nation’s leaders were engaged in a clash of dueling narratives over storm relief.

It was if the rest of us were kids watching our soon-to-be divorcing parents fight at the very moment we just needed them to notice that the world was falling apart before our terrified eyes.

Talk about the road to dystopia.

The Republicans, led by Trump and Vance, continue to spread rumors, half-truths and outright lies designed to undermine trust in the federal government, led by Biden and Harris, who were desperately trying to show that they indeed were in charge.

As part of that effort, the President and Vice-President held an unprecedented televised meeting with their senior aides to reassure the nation that everything was under control.

Their senior aides obligingly complied.

Meanwhile, Tim Walz stayed out of the hurricane psychodrama altogether to focus on calling for the end of the Electoral College. I’m beginning to think he’s the only guy in America who sees what is happening here.

I know the kerfuffle over storm relief is just politics as usual, but it was distressing and unsettling to me to watch our political leaders seem so clueless about how this affects the rest of us. Do we still have a country any more, or is it more like two countries, you know, mom’s house and dad’s house?

When the pundits talk about political chaos, this is what they mean. But when disaster strikes what we yearn for his national unity, even if it won’t last. And it’s clear that there will never be any semblance of unity until Donald Trump is gone from the scene. God help us should he return to power.

Thanks to Susan Zakin and the Journal of the Plague Years for publishing my essay, “What Really Matters.” I recommend the Journal for its unique mix of fiction and non-fiction focusing on the here and now.

HEADLINES:

MUSIC (Listen):

D-I-V-O-R-C-E by Tammy Wynette (1968)

[Verse 1]
Our little boy is four years old and quite a little man
So we spell out the words we don't want him to understand
Like T-O-Y or maybe S-U-R P-R-I-S-E
But the words we're hiding from him now
Tear the heart right out of me

[Chorus]
Our D-I-V-O-R-C-E becomes final today
Me and little J-O-E will be goin' away
I love you both and this will be pure H-E double L for me
Oh, I wish that we could stop this D-I-V-O-R-C-E

[Verse 2]
Watch him smile, he thinks it Christmas or his fifth Birthday
And he thinks C-U-S-T-O-D-Y spells fun or play
I spell out all the hurtin' words and turn my head when I speak
'Cause I can't spell away this hurt
That's drippin' down my cheek

[Chorus]
Our D-I-V-O-R-C-E becomes final today
Me and little J-O-E will be goin' away
I love you both and this will be pure H-E double L for me

Oh, I wish that we could stop this D-I-V-O-R-C-E 

Wednesday, October 09, 2024

Mattering

 I’m not sure that I ever fully appreciated it at the time — in fact, I’m quite sure I didn’t — but during the years that one of my obligations was to drop my kids off at school it actually was a privilege.

Like all adults trying to balance responsibilities, I probably complained about it on occasion, and it certainly could be stressful when we were running late.

But what I mean by calling it a privilege is that even at the time I knew, deep down, that I was somehow playing an essential role in our societal ecosystem. And believing that your role matters is not always the easiest thing to achieve in our culture, especially as you age.

Years later, when those parental obligations are done and the kids are grown, you become conscious that you are no longer quite so essential — that, in fact, you’re now basically inessential. Retiring from work accentuates that awareness, as your professional responsibilities, once deemed weighty and significant, melt away as well.

At that point you may start pondering just how little you did mattered in the larger scheme of things.

***

It’s painfully obvious that our society doesn’t know what to do about its aging population. Watching what happened to Joe Biden as he was cast aside was a very public reminder of that. But it is also instructive what has happened since.

The person most likely to have benefitted from throwing Biden under her bus has steadfastly refused to do so. Instead, Kamala Harris has defended Biden and his legacy, even as she pays a steep political price for her loyalty.

Given the perfect chance Tuesday to name one of Biden’s policies she disagreed with, Harris demurred, “There is not a thing that comes to mind.” 

That was hardly a politically expedient thing to say as Republicans try to weaponize her loyalty to a President with low approval ratings. But it is precisely what a person of principle might do, regardless of the consequences.

It also had the effect of honoring an elder, though we’re not accustomed to think of it that way.

Beyond the politics of this, the larger context here reaches into the existential human dilemma involved with aging and caring — including the universal experience of feeling essential, then inessential, and how to bring all of that back into balance.

Something else Harris said on Tuesday may prove even more consequential in this regard.

Outlining her plan to expand Medicare to cover home health care for the aged, Harris noted: "There are so many people in our country who are right in the middle. They're taking care of their kids and they're taking care of their aging parents, and it's just almost impossible to do it all, especially if they work."

And then — and this is key — she added, “(Seniors) want to stay in their home. They don't want to go somewhere else, plus for the family to send them to a residential care facility, to hire somebody, is so expensive.”

It was not only what she said; it was the way she said “they don’t want to go somewhere else.” As I watched her speak, I thought to myself, ‘here is someone who actually gets it, she understands.’

***

Early in 2020, just as the pandemic was arriving and recovering from a stroke, I moved into an assisted care facility. At the time it seemed like the only option left for me. In fact, the last place on earth I needed to be was with a bunch of other old people walled off from society, waiting to die. Nothing against the staff members in there, most of whom were terrific, or the residents, but every minute I spent in that place my hope was evaporating and spirit was being crushed.

In the end I was one of the lucky ones. My family rescued me and that’s why I can tell this story today.

Ii’s my belief that Kamala Harris has the empathy and the vision to see not only what matters to people like those of us now at that critical stage of caring for and being cared for at this vulnerable point in our lives. She also understands what the government can and should try to do about making things easier on all of us, including our caretakers.

What’s really brilliant about Harris’s plan is it would help families of all stripes and definitions keep their loved ones out of institutions, and in the process give many of us a second shot at again doing those little things that matter even if we didn’t realize that when we were young. 

And I commend her for that, while noting that Donald Trump isn’t capable of even comprehending what I’m talking about here.

***

When I woke up yesterday morning, it was obvious that our long, intense heat wave had finally broken. Fresh cool air swept in from the ocean and through my open windows. I stretched, pulled on my clothes and drank a cup of coffee.

A few minutes after 8 a.m. I grabbed the car keys. My 10-year-old granddaughter brushed her hair and hoisted her backpack.

“I’m ready, Grandpa.”

Then I drove her to school. And it was my distinct privilege to do that.



HEADLINES: 

  • Harris proposes Medicare cover home care costs to help the 'sandwich generation' (NPR)

  • ‘Not a thing that comes to mind’ for Harris on what she would have done differently from Biden (Politico)

  • Harris announces plan for Medicare to cover long-term care at home (Guardian)

  • Harris Holds Onto Lead In 3 New Polls (Forbes)

  • Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris led Republican Donald Trump by a marginal three percentage points - 46% to 43% - as the two remain locked in a close race to win the election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. (Reuters)

  • Trump spoke to Putin as many as 7 times since leaving office, Bob Woodward reports in new book (AP)

  • Trump secretly sent covid tests to Putin during 2020 shortage, new book says (WP)

  • Tampa Bay hasn’t been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921. Milton may be the one (AP)

  • Dire Warnings for Storm-Weary Floridians as Hurricane Milton Approaches (NYT)

  • ‘The worst I have ever seen’: Disinformation chaos hammers FEMA (Politico)

  • Illegal migration at US border drops to lowest level since 2020 (USA Today)

  • The Mideast War Threatens Harris in Michigan as Arab Voters Reject Her (NYT)

  • Can ghost guns be regulated as firearms? The Supreme Court will decide (NPR)

  • In landmark move, EPA requires removal of all U.S. lead pipes in a decade (WP)

  • Israeli military claims hit on Hezbollah HQ commander (Al Jazeera)

  • The Israeli military piled more pressure on Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah, saying it was conducting "limited, localized, targeted operations" in Lebanon's southwest, expanding its incursions into a new zone. (Reuters)

  • War enters key phase with Ukraine's strike on major Crimea oil terminal, Zelenskyy says (AP)

  • Field study finds using biodiversity instead of pesticides can reduce crop damage from herbivores (phys.org)

  • New archaeology tools are helping unearth long-lost cities. (WP)

  • Nobel Physics Prize Awarded for Pioneering A.I. Research by 2 Scientists (NYT)

  • Geoffrey Hinton, Godfather of AI Who Expressed Alarm Over the Technology, Shares Nobel Prize in Physics (WSJ)

  • I've been testing ChatGPT Canvas — here's why I think it's the most important AI tool of the year (tom’s)

  • OpenAI announces content deal with Hearst, including content from Cosmopolitan, Esquire and the San Francisco Chronicle (CNBC)

  • J.D. Vance Under Fire For Criticizing Childless Children (The Onion)

Tuesday, October 08, 2024

Super Storms


Someone once described Florida as a tropical green finger reaching into the turquoise waters of the Caribbean. 

Ever since my first visit there as a youngster, I've loved the place. My uncle had an ice cream store somewhere near Tampa. When I helped out there during our visit one summer, the reward was all the ice cream I could eat.

In my 30s and 40s I spent part of each summer on Sanibel Island off of Ft. Myers well south of Tampa. I wrote parts of three books down there.

There are many other memories as well, some of them bittersweet. My Dad died in Florida. For all six of my kids, Florida was at some point in their lives a special kind of paradise.

But Florida has a huge problem and it’s called climate change. As it has gotten battered by storm after storm in recent years, long-time residents are starting to question how much longer life in the Sunshine State will even be viable.

Those concerns are hitting a crescendo right now. Helene caused extensive damage with only a passing blow. The cleanup is still underway and now Milton is headed straight for Tampa.

Of course there is a political storm in the aftermath of Helene over the allocation of resources, mainly in North Carolina. But that is to be expected in the final weeks of a campaign, especially when you have one candidate, Trump, willing to exploit any disaster for his own gain. 

Meanwhile, everyone else is worried whether a very special corner of the planet is going to become one of first casualties of global climate change.

HEADLINES: 

Monday, October 07, 2024

The Watchtower

A month out from Election Day, the polling site 538 gives Kamala Harris a 55 percent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump. Harris maintains a narrow lead of about 2.5 points in the national polls, and enough of a lead in key Blue Wall battleground states to eke out a victory in the Electoral College.

Harris leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin by identical margins of 1.6 points and in Pennsylvania by a minuscule 0.5 points. She also has a commanding lead in the Blue Dot district of Nebraska with its one electoral vote and a 1.0 lead in Nevada.

If those leads hold, it would translate into a Harris victory in the Electoral College, 277-261.

But the problem with these polls as prediction engines is that they all fall well within the margin of error. So while 538 only gives Trump a 45 percent chance of winning, I think the actual odds are closer to 50-50.

That’s because Trump has been edging closer to Harris in the Blue Wall states in recent weeks, and has been holding sway in the Sunbelt — Arizona (by 1.1 points), Georgia (by 1.2 points) and by 0.9 points in North Carolina.

Should Trump win these three and flips Pennsylvania, he would win, 280-268.

Harris will win the popular vote by a large margin. The only question is by how much. Currently, it appears to be well over 4 million votes, which would be more than Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victory in 2016 (2.9 million) but less than Joe Biden’s in 2020 (7 million).

It’s worth noting that if the U.S. were a direct democracy, Trump never would have gotten his first term, let alone have a shot at a second.

HEADLINES: 

LYRICS:

All Along the Watchtower by Bob Dylan

There must be some kind of way outta here
Said the joker to the thief
There's too much confusion
I can't get no relief

Business men, they drink my wine
Plowmen dig my earth
None will level on the line
Nobody offered his word
Hey, hey

No reason to get excited
The thief, he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke
But, uh, but you and I, we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us stop talkin' falsely now
The hour's getting late, hey

Hey

All along the watchtower
Princes kept the view
While all the women came and went
Barefoot servants, too
Well, uh, outside in the cold distance
A wildcat did growl
Two riders were approaching
And the wind began to howl, hey

All along the watchtower 

Sunday, October 06, 2024

Tropical Nights


 For reasons that I cannot explain, an intense spell of really hot weather alters my mood and my orientation as a writer. This is going to sound crazy, but as the temperature rises, my interest in facts declines and I’m drawn much more to fiction.

I’m bringing this up because we are experiencing an unusually persistent heat wave in Northern California. The temperatures have reached well into the 90s and even over 100 in some places. I’ve got the windows open, the fan on high and a tumbler of ice water, but the heat is having its way with me.

I’ve just got to make stuff up.

That’s no doubt why I abandoned the campaign trail to publish my short story, “Tidelines” a few days ago. The heat sent me digging through old files to locate fiction I wrote while in the tropics decades ago.

Tidelines seeks a different kind of truth.

The story focuses on the instinct for escape, the risks of the unknown, the impulse to surrender to suicidal thoughts, the fog of addiction, the insatiable power of new attractions, the scarring from repeated losses, the excitement of exploration, the resilience of hope and faith, the overwhelming intricacy of our ecosystems and, in the end, the dilemma posed by pure, unrestrained beauty — both of the people in our lives and our vulnerable planet.

In real life, I’ve experienced some of these things, come close to others and imagined the rest.

I guess you could call it environmental fiction. Or you might write it off as an aberration due to some combination of the sporadic recurrence of the typhoid fever that almost killed me in India, global warming, and the sensuous memory of long, hot tropical nights with a lover, all of which were not confined to my dreams.

I’ll get back to the election tomorrow.

HEADLINES:

Saturday, October 05, 2024

Weekend Links

“The more intelligent a person is, the more he discovers kindness in others. For nothing enriches the world more than kindness. It makes mysterious things clear, difficult things easy, and dull things cheerful.” — Leo Tolstoy

HEADLINES: 

  • Hurricane Helene satellite images show major devastation in North Carolina as death toll continues to rise (CBS)

  • Yellow jackets swarm after North Carolina floods, prompting need for Benadryl and EpiPens (NBC)

  • Mayorkas warns FEMA doesn’t have enough funding to last through hurricane season (AP)

  • Biden’s Surprise Press Briefing (PBS)

  • Trump Promised to Release His Medical Records. He Still Won’t Do It. If elected again, he would become the oldest president by the end of his term. Yet he is refusing to disclose even basic health information. (NYT)

  • Trump’s Jan. 6 role back in focus as he readies new stolen election claims (WP)

  • Latest CNN ‘Road to 270’ map sees small but consequential move in Harris’ direction (CNN)

  • Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in polls with early voting under way (Guardian)

  • Swing State Polling Finds Deadlocked Presidential Contest, ‘Blue Wall’ Senate Races Tighten (Cook Political Report)

  • October 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 48% (Emerson)

  • Many of the tactics Jack Smith accused Trump of using to overturn the 2020 election are still in play for 2024 (CNN)

  • Blowout September jobs data points to solid economy and slower Fed rate cuts, analysts say (USA Today)

  • The Latest Employment Numbers And The Presidential Election (Forbes)

  • America's one-two punch of good economic news (Axios)

  • False claims about FEMA disaster funds and migrants pushed by Trump (NBC)

  • As Trump makes false claims about hurricane relief, White House calls it ‘poison’ (WP)

  • Satellite images show dozens of Iranian missiles struck near Israeli air base (NPR)

  • Inside the $621 Million Legal Battle for the ‘Soul of the Internet’ (Rolling Stone)

  • Nearly 50% of researchers quit science within a decade, huge study reveals (Nature)

  • Kris Kristofferson, singer, songwriter and actor, 1936-2024 (Financial Times)

  • AI to Have Human-Level Abilities in a Few Years, SoftBank CEO Son Says (WSJ)

  • Meta unveils advanced video-creation AI (Axios)

  • Scientists Let Defrosted Neanderthal Run Around Shrieking Before Refreezing Him (The Onion)

 

Friday, October 04, 2024

The Razor's Edge


 Well, it’s gotten even closer.

For those who hoped the Presidential race would be less of a nail-biter than it was projected to be a week ago, those wishes did not materialize.

When I crunched the numbers a week ago, it looked like the margin of victory separating the two candidates in the all-important seven swing states would be about 440,000 votes out of the 162 million expected to be cast nationally.

That was 0.0027.

As of this morning, I calculate the number to be 368,000 votes or only 0.0023. That is just under one-quarter of one percent.

While it’s hard to believe that the electorate could be that evenly divided, math doesn’t lie.

Here’s how the seven swing states look to end up with the margin of votes in parenthesis:

Arizona (Trump +45,800)

Georgia (Trump +67,600)

Michigan (Harris +92,200)

Nevada (Harris +14,600)

North Carolina (Trump +45,900)

Pennsylvania (Harris +43,300)

Wisconsin (Harris +58,300)

If we consider the swing states as a bloc, the math becomes even more ridiculous. These states represent just under 20 percent of the voting population nationally. Inside that bloc, Harris leads Trump by 49,100 votes or a minuscule 0.0003 percent of the national electorate. That’s smaller than the crescent of your little toenail when you trim your nails.

If these projections hold, Harris will win in the Electoral College by a margin of 276-262. Of course when it comes to the popular vote, she is headed for a mini-landslide victory of over 4.2 million votes.

(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s polls as of this morning to calculate the number of votes in each state,)

HEADLINES: